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European Foreign Affairs Review 9: 551–573, 2004. © 2004 Kluwer Law International. EU Intervention in Ethno-political Conflicts: The Cases of Cyprus and Serbia-Montenegro NATHALIE TOCCI* I Introduction The south-eastern neighbourhood of the EU is ridden with secessionist or irredentist ethno-political conflicts. In most cases, negotiations have sought solutions along the federal–confederal spectrum. These agreements appear to be the only compromises accounting for the needs of territorial integrity, refugee return and property restitution of the metropolitan states and those of self-determination of the minority communities. In turn, the international community has attempted repeatedly to craft federal proposals. In most cases it has failed to mediate sustainable settlements. For those countries where full EU accession could be a short- or mediumterm prospect, the task of conflict prevention or settlement could be facilitated by making use of the EU framework within which to embed loose federal agreements. In particular, transformed notions of sovereignty, borders and security within an EU setting could aid the search for win-win agreements.1 How and to what extent was the EU framework used in crafting compromises to settle and prevent the conflicts in Cyprus and Serbia-Montenegro respectively? EU policies may also affect the incentive structure underpinning conflicts.2 In particular, EU policies of conditionality, by conditioning benefits either directly or indirectly to progress in peace efforts, can increase incentives towards conflict prevention or settlement.3 Over time, incentives can also alter as the result of successful persuasion and argumentation by EU actors. In both cases, policy change occurs by altering domestic dynamics, either by * Jean Monnet Fellow, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute, Italy. 1 T. Diez, S. Stetter and M. Albert ‘The EU and the Transformation of Border Conflicts’ (2004) 1 EUBorderConf Working Papers, January 2004; N. Tocci, ‘Conflict Resolution in the European Neighbourhood: the Role of the EU as a Framework and as an Actor’ (2004) EUI Working Paper, Florence. 2 C. Hill ‘The EU’s Capacity for Conflict Prevention’ (2001) 6 EFA Rev, pp. 315–333. 3 On EU political conditionality see K. Smith (1998) ‘The Use of Political Conditionality in the EU’s Relations with Third Countries: how effective?’ (1998) 3 EFA Rev, pp. 253–74.